Even more on Russia
(I ran out of space in the previous post)
The hallmark of a bad conspiracy theory is not just that it’s complicated and fails to Occam’s Razor, or that there’s no beneficiary for it, but that any evidence is bent into the narrative.
The MSM narrative that Putin’s plan to invade Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine under Bush, Obama, and Sleepy Joe but nothing under Trump is because Trump and Putin were in cahoots make no sense. What evidence could you give to someone that would make them believe Trump was not a warmonger? The other 62% who believe Putin would not attack if Trump was in office make a bit more sense but that’s not a guarantee.
Trump being anti-NATO would be enough to stop Russia’s invasion since that’s Putin’s main gripe (also many other world leaders’ gripe). Russia gate is fake news. If Trump would have done nothing if Putin invaded, it would make sense for him to invade and fight a weaker Ukraine with no support from the core of NATO (the US). In reality, Russia has taken in 100s of thousands of refugees from the Donbas region. There was a lull during Trump’s administration with NATO not supporting Ukraine against Donbas. When Biden got elected, the attacks resumed and kept escalating until they could no longer be ignored. Would Trump being in office stop this? Probably not. Other NATO allies would be funded the War in Donbas instead. Trump was against withdrawing missiles from NATO allies east of the 1997 border and the Brandon administration is following suit. If the US dropped the idea that the corrupt shell of a country that is Ukraine should join NATO (or at least majorly delay it), there could be peace. Contrary to popular belief, Putin is very willing to negotiate diplomatically. He was the one who proposed the moratorium on INF missiles and for 8 years was trying to resolve the Donbas situation peacefully. December 2021 was his last attempt for peace. He waited until February for a response and the unwillingness of the West to compromise on meaningless loyalty to the war dogs and demonization of Russia made it so he had no choice.
When the West says it wants other countries to decide how to lead themselves, it is the biggest lie imaginable. The US didn’t even let Haiti choose how much it can pay workers. The West also doesn’t tolerate dissent, for example, Germany fires Navy vice-chief for thinking Putin deserves respect. To think of persona non grata Vladimir Putin as anything other than Russian Hitler is anathema to the West. In fact, leaked calls show that the US installed the prime minister of Ukraine after Euromaidan.
Euromaidan turned violent after Western NGOs funded extremist groups. Neo-nazi group C14 even brags about it.
Minsk II advocates demilitarizing Donbas in return for recognizing its independence but Ukraine refuses to do so because it will lose its chance to join NATO. NATO is Russia’s biggest concern and is a sparkplug for WW3 yet serves no strategic purpose for the West to induct Ukraine into NATO and we do it anyway. Why? The MIC. We supply weapons to Ukraine solely for profit because there is no way the little we give to Ukraine is enough to tip the military supremacy scales away from Moscow. Russia also uses a fraction of a fraction its power to aid the pro-Russians in Donbas. If the Russian invasion becomes full-fledged and the Biden administration backs a Ukrainian insurgency as it planned to in the past, it is Ukrainians bare the brunt of the damage, not Russia, and definitely not the West. This shows to the world that the West values NATO expansionism and the MIC over the lives of Ukrainians and all others caught in the crossfire. NATO is effectively the marketing department for the MIC and unless someone interrupts the war profiteering for any reason, the inevitable damage to the world (maybe not in this conflict) will be incalculable.
Even more on Russia.
The distance from Havana to Seattle is less than Kyiv or Donetsk to Russia’s furthest away major city of Novosibirsk. St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and Moscow are all much closer. While I haven’t seen evidence that Ukraine is trying to get nukes again, they have violated many other treaties so why is the Budapest Memorandum any different? This is one of Russia’s major concerns.
To Russia, the NATO expansion eastward is like the Cuban missile crisis to America. NATO has no reason to exist after the fall of the USSR since its goal is to prevent the spread of communism. NATO’s self-expressed purpose is to stop the threat of Russia. Ukraine remaining neutral or on Russia’s side is the ultimate positional advantage for Russia as anyone who’s played Risk would know. Ideally for Russia, NATO is disbanded, less ideal would be Ukraine joining the CSTO, even less ideal would be Ukraine remains neutral, but Ukraine joining NATO is *the red line* for Moscow.
Some other things to consider:
Russia is the only European petrostate, but after 2012, Ukraine was found to have proven reserves. Ukraine today is like Venezuela or Iraq with proven reserves but none of the capital investment necessary to make it useful. Having Ukraine in a constant state of war in Donbas makes it unlikely for foreign investors to invest in Ukraine’s energy infrastructure or for Ukraine to do it themselves.
Furthermore, after losing Crimea, Ukraine filled up the canal providing the arid peninsula with water, slowly starving it hoping for its surrender. Russia could aim to break the dam (edit: they did this yesterday). Now with Crimea secured, Russia can extract all the resources in the area. Not to mention the Donbas region also is rich in resources that Russia will aim to extract after LPR/DPR vote to leave Ukraine.
Will Russia push further?
Russia has the firepower necessary to level Kyiv and kill every Ukrainian several times over—even without nuclear weapons. They are undoubtedly restrained to reduce unnecessary carnage as civilian deaths go against the message Putin wants to spread. Even China and India would condemn Russia if Russia annihilated Ukraine via blitzkrieg and a decisive vernichtungsschlacht bringing Kyiv to its knees. A Fabian strategy has a much better political outcome slowly pushing forwards until Ukraine is cut off from the Black Sea and surrender is forced. As hard as it is to believe, Putin wants surrender, not slaughter.
Transnistria in Moldova?
Transnistria is a breakaway state in Moldova as is the DPR/LPR in Ukraine. It would not surprise me that Putin recognizes them later. I don’t think it will happen this year though. No troops have moved in from Moldova or near Moldova.
Is Zelensky a gigachad?
Probably not. The photos are fake, videos are unavailable of him in combat which would be great propaganda if it did happen so would be online instantly. Why is he staying in Ukraine? I could guess either nationalistic pride or fear that he would be replaced if he left.
The US Stoked this war
Not only did Biden request Zelensky to not pursue peace talks and instead funded Ukraine’s war, but also the months leading up to the invasion were only worsened by Western strong-arming. The US cheered Zelensky silencing his opposition and freezing opposition leader Medvedchuck’s assets. (odd that they claim they are promoting democracy). In response, Russia deployed 3,000 troops and which then grew to the massive 100,000+ force that invaded on the 24th of Feb. This started the military standoff with Russia. Now that they helped spark this war, how are they going to help?
Better this than an actual war.